IMF PROJECTS 22.3% GROWTH FOR GUYANA IN 2026, CALLS FOR STRONGER OVERSIGHT OF OIL REVENUES AND PUBLIC SPENDING

GEORGETOWN, GUYANA | OCTOBER 10, 2026 — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Guyana’s economy will expand by 22.3 percent in 2026, driven by increased oil production and continued growth in construction, agriculture, mining and manufacturing. However, the international financial institution has also called for stronger public spending oversight, improved transparency in the oil and gas sector and a comprehensive long-term fiscal strategy to ensure the country’s expanding wealth produces sustainable benefits.

In its latest Article IV Consultation, concluded on October 8, the IMF reported that Guyana’s economy grew by 19.3 percent in 2025, with oil-sector activity increasing by 21.1 percent and the non-oil economy expanding by 14 percent. Oil production exceeded 900,000 barrels per day, while increased private lending and investment supported economic activity. The Fund expects non-oil growth to reach 10.2 percent in 2026, reflecting continued expansion beyond petroleum production.

Guyana’s financial position has also strengthened considerably. According to the IMF, gross international reserves reached approximately US$1.4 billion at the end of 2025, while the Natural Resource Fund accumulated approximately US$3.3 billion, representing more than 12 percent of gross domestic product. Strong petroleum revenues helped reduce the overall fiscal deficit to 5.5 percent of GDP in 2025, although the Fund projects the deficit will widen to 6.4 percent in 2026.

Despite the favourable economic outlook, the IMF cautioned that rising public expenditure must be carefully managed to prevent economic instability. It recommended that Guyana establish a comprehensive medium- and long-term fiscal strategy to guide government spending, protect the country’s financial reserves and ensure that future generations benefit from petroleum revenues. The Fund also advised that additional oil revenue should be saved where necessary, particularly if higher oil prices generate income beyond the economy’s capacity to absorb new spending effectively.

Public accountability featured prominently in the assessment. The IMF identified the need to resolve outstanding cost-oil audits, improve the timely publication of financial accounts for public enterprises and government agencies, and strengthen auditing capacity in the petroleum sector. It also called for consistent compliance with procurement regulations as government expenditure increases, alongside improvements to anti-corruption safeguards, including the Integrity Commission and the asset declaration system.

Inflation remains another area requiring attention. Although average inflation was contained at 3.3 percent in 2025, the IMF projects it will rise to 4.1 percent in 2026, reflecting higher international food and energy prices. The Fund recommended that broad government subsidies and other measures intended to cushion rising prices be gradually replaced with more targeted assistance for vulnerable households, while maintaining financial stability.

The IMF also highlighted the importance of economic diversification, noting that Guyana must continue strengthening education, workforce development, agriculture and other productive sectors to reduce its long-term dependence on oil. It identified the Gas-to-Energy project as a potential contributor to lower electricity costs and improved business competitiveness, while recommending continued investment in drainage, sea defences and climate-resilient agriculture.

Although the IMF considers Guyana’s economic outlook highly favourable, its assessment makes clear that rapid growth must be accompanied by stronger financial management, institutional accountability and long-term planning. With petroleum production expected to increase as additional oil fields become operational, the challenge facing policymakers is ensuring that today’s expanding revenues support lasting economic stability and development beyond the oil industry.